Search for: All records

A long-term record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) provides critical insight into the dynamical limits of Earth’s climate and the complex feedbacks between temperature and the broader Earth system. Here, we present PhanDA, a reconstruction of GMST over the past 485 million years, generated by statistically integrating proxy data with climate model simulations. PhanDA exhibits a large range of GMST, spanning 11° to 36°C. Partitioning the reconstruction into climate states indicates that more time was spent in warmer rather than colder climates and reveals consistent latitudinal temperature gradients within each state. There is a strong correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations and GMST, identifying CO₂as the dominant control on variations in Phanerozoic global climate and suggesting an apparent Earth system sensitivity of ~8°C. 

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring concentrated rainfall and flooding to the western United States (US) and are hypothesized to have supported sustained hydroclimatic changes in the past. However, their ephemeral nature makes it challenging to document ARs in climate models and estimate their contribution to hydroclimate changes recorded by time-averaged paleoclimate archives. We present new climate model simulations of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16,000 years before the present), an interval characterized by widespread wetness in the western US, that demonstrate increased AR frequency and winter precipitation sourced from the southeastern North Pacific. These changes are amplified with freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic, indicating that North Atlantic cooling associated with weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key driver of HS1 climate in this region. As recent observations suggest potential weakening of AMOC, our identified connection between North Atlantic climate and northeast Pacific AR activity has implications for future western US hydroclimate. 

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring concentrated rainfall and flooding to the western United States (US) and are hypothesized to have supported sustained hydroclimatic changes in the past. However, their ephemeral nature makes it challenging to document ARs in climate models and estimate their contribution to hydroclimate changes recorded by time-averaged paleoclimate archives. We present new climate model simulations of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16,000 years before the present), an interval characterized by widespread wetness in the western US, that demonstrate increased AR frequency and winter precipitation sourced from the southeastern North Pacific. These changes are amplified with freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic, indicating that North Atlantic cooling associated with weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key driver of HS1 climate in this region. As recent observations suggest potential weakening of AMOC, our identified connection between North Atlantic climate and northeast Pacific AR activity has implications for future western US hydroclimate. 

Abstract We present an updated set of Carboniferous Sr, C and O isotope stratigraphies based on the existing literature, given the importance of chemostratigraphy for stratigraphic correlation in the Carboniferous. The Carboniferous⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr record, constructed using brachiopods and conodonts, exhibits five first-order phases beginning with a rapid decline from a peak value ofc.0.70840 at the Devonian–Carboniferous boundary to a trough (0.70776–0.70771) in the Visean followed by a rise to a plateau (c.0.70827) in the upper Bashkirian. A decline toc.0.70804 follows from the lowermost Gzhelian to the close of the Carboniferous. Contemporaneous carbonate δ¹³C records exhibit considerable variability between materials analysed and by region, although pronounced excursions (e.g. the mid-Tournaisian positive excursion and the end-Kasimovian negative excursion) are present in most records. Bulk carbonate δ¹³C records from South China and Europe, however, are generally consistent with those of brachiopod calcite from North America in terms of both absolute values and trends. Both brachiopod calcite and conodont phosphate δ¹⁸O document large regional variability, confirming that Carboniferous δ¹⁸O records are invalid for precise stratigraphic correlation. Nevertheless, significant positive δ¹⁸O shifts in certain intervals (e.g. mid-Tournaisian and the Mississippian–Pennsylvanian transition) can be used for global correlation. 

Paleosols represent fossil records of paleolandscape processes, paleobiotic interactions with the land surface, and paleoclimate. Paleosol-based reconstructions have figured prominently in the study of significant changes in global climate and terrestrial life, with one of the more highly studied examples being the end-Permian extinction (EPE). The EPE was once thought to consist of synchronous extinctions in the marine realm and the terrestrial realm, with the latter displaying a lower magnitude extinction of vertebrate, insect, and plant life. However, emerging stratigraphic records, anchored by high-precision U–Pb ages, and compilations of fossil taxa indicate that the terrestrial realm on Gondwana experienced an asynchronous extinction record with the marine realm; and, at the global-scale, possibly the lack of a true mass extinction for plant and vertebrate communities. Moreover, paleosol-based interpretations of the EPE on Gondwana typically focus on one depositional basin and extrapolate those finding to assess the potential for global paleoenvironmental/paleoclimatic change. This review compiles observations of paleosols, sedimentology, stratigraphy, and geochemical data across Gondwana during the Late Permian in order to critically assess these interpretations of global change in the lead up to the EPE. 

Paleo-CO2 reconstructions are integral to understanding the evolution of Earth system processes and their interactions given that atmospheric-CO2 concentrations are intrinsically linked to planetary function. In this talk, we use several case studies, spanning the 3 Phanerozoic Eras, to illustrate the potential of paleo-CO2 records to constrain the magnitude and state-dependency of equilibrium climate sensitivity, to advance our understanding of global biogeochemical cycles, to test the sensitivity of Earth System modeled atmospheric and oceanic circulation to PCO2 over a range of climate states, and to interrogate ecosystem—CO2—climate linkages and physiological responses to CO2. Further advances in these areas, however, are dependent on how well we ‘know’ paleo-CO2 estimates. CO2 estimates exist for much of the past half-billion years, but the degree to which the accuracy and precision of these estimates are constrained is quite variable, leading to substantial uncertainty and inconsistency in paleo-CO2 estimates. Potential sources of this uncertainty and inconsistency include an incomplete understanding of how environmental and ecophysiological conditions and processes imprint the CO2 proxy signals we measure, of the sensitivity of the CO2 estimates to this uncertainty, and differences in approaches to assigning uncertainties to CO2 estimates, among other factors. Application of newly established screening criteria, defined as part of an effort to improve our understanding of how atmospheric CO2 has varied through the Cenozoic, illustrates how the majority of pre-Cenozoic estimates are unreliable in their current form. To address these issues and to advance paleo-CO2 reconstruction, we introduce CO2PIP, a new community-scale project that takes a two-step approach to building the next generation Phanerozoic-CO2 record. Collective efforts are modernizing existing terrestrial-based CO2 estimates through additional analyses, measurements and proxy system modeling to constrain critical parameters used to estimate paleo-CO2. A set of forward proxy system models being developed in collaboration with the CO2 community, will provide a quantified representation of proxy sensitivities to environmental and ecophysiological conditions and processes that govern the CO2 signals. Ultimately, statistical inversion analysis of the simulated and modernized proxy datasets will be used to revise individual CO2 records and to build a new integrated model-data-constrained CO2 record for the Phanerozoic.